Paradise for Ivy

欧洲统计局8月29日公布的数字显示，由15个国家组成的欧元区8月份的通货膨胀率与前一个月相比有所下降。 

　　数据显示，8月份欧元区的通胀率以年率计算为3．8％，比7月份的4．0％下降了0．2个百分点，也低于经济分析人士此前预测的3．9％。 

　　受世界原油价格飙升的影响，7月份欧元区的年通胀率创下了1999年欧元诞生以来的最高记录。 

　　专家认为，在经济不景气的情况下，欧元区通胀率下降对于消费者和企业来说都是好消息，同时也有利于欧洲央行下调利率以刺激经济增长。 

　　欧盟统计局本月14日公布的初步数据显示，今年第二季度，欧元区经济比前一季度下降0．2％，这是自1995年开始相关统计以来欧元区经济首次环比出现负增长。

东方网8月18日消息：就在几个月前，美国政策制定者还在为美元究竟下跌到何时而受到外界的指责。而最近几周的事实却显示，美元连续7年的贬值可能已经走到了尽头。

　　随着欧洲和日本经济逐渐暴露出衰退迹象以及原油价格大幅下调，美元兑欧元汇率已经攀至6个月来的新高，兑日元汇率也已升至7个月内的高点。

　　欧元兑美元在上周贬值2.2％，截至上周五跌至1.4687的水

平,上周五最低一度达到1.4663。而美元对日元汇率上周也上涨0.3％至110.53。美元指数也达到自1月22日以来的最高点77.268点。

　　彭博社援引雷曼兄弟驻纽约的货币分析师Steven Englander的话称，世界正在发现美元价格“非常、非常便宜”。他认为，对美国之外经济体经济增长和货币政策调整的重大变化正在影响全球，同时大宗商品价格的下跌，也将进一步提振美元。

　　欧元区经济的萎靡预期已为美元的反弹提供了动力，美元兑欧元已经连续升值5周，创造了自2006年2月以来上涨时间的最长纪录。

　　在英国央行下调了对国内经济的增长预期后，英镑上周也创造了自2005年7月以来对美元最大的跌幅。在过去的一个月中，美元兑欧元和英镑已累计升值8％，对日元升值6％。

　　纽约银行驻伦敦的货币分析师Simon Derrick对彭博表示，我们现在确实位于对美元升值有利的基本面拐点上。

　　欧盟统计办公室上周宣布，欧元区GDP在第二季度下降到0.2％,这是自1999年来的首次下降。而日本内阁办公室同样表示，第二季度日本经济年率下降至2.4％,这说明该国经济也已经出现收缩。而彭博的调查预计显示，将于明日公布的德国投资人信心指数可能将跌至1991年以来的最低。

　　另一个影响美元的因素也为美元的上扬注入了活力，石油价格在上周又下跌1.2％至113.77美元/桶，距7月11日147.27的历史纪录已经下降了24％，据彭博统计，美元汇率和石油价格的相关性在去年达到了0.9。

　　高盛在上周表示，美元兑欧元已经见底，它预计未来三个月内欧元兑美元的汇率将下跌至1.45左右。

　　持同样观点的还有雷曼兄弟，它预计美元对欧元在本年末将升值至1.43，到2009年3月将升值至1.40，而之前的预计分别为1.50和1.48。

Energy prices were the main driver of price growth, and were 6.6% higher in June as the cost of petrol, natural gas and heating oil increased. Expectations that that a slowing US economy will dampen demand for oil helped crude prices drop 42 cents to $138.32 in pre-market trade in New York. Annual core inflation, which strips out volatile fuel and food prices, touched 2.4%. The surge in living costs has dented the earning power of Americans. Average weekly wages, after adjusting for inflation, fell by 0.9% in June - the biggest monthly decline in 24 years, the Department said.

June's annual inflation increase was the highest since 1991 while the monthly jump is the sharpest since September 2005. In his second day of congressional testimony on Wednesday, the Fed boss said inflation was too high and it was a key objective for the central bank to bring it down. Many analysts now believe that the central bank may have to leave borrowing costs on hold, or even increase them, as it tries to steer a faltering economy through turbulet times. At the same time as inflationary pressures are rising, the US faces a severe housing slump, a credit crunch and financial market turmoil stemming from the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market. According to minutes of the Fed's interest rate meeting in June, policymakers believed "the next change in the stance of policy could well be an increase" due to "upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations". The impact of surging living costs in June "really puts the Fed in a hole," said Alan Ruskin, an economist at RBS Greenwich. Gary Thayer, from Wachovia Securities, agreed that the Fed was facing a tricky balancing act. "This increases concern that the Fed is not going to be able to lower interest rates if the economy remains weak." But he added: "And as long as the economy remains weak, it will be hard for the Fed to raise rates to fight inflation."

Consumer prices were 5% higher than a year ago and rose 1.1% on a monthly basis, the Labor Department said. Federal Reserve boss Ben Bernanke has warned that the threat of rising inflation has intensified recently. Minutes from the Fed's latest meeting on interest rates indicated the next move in borrowing costs could be up. It faces the dilemma of having to stem the rise in inflation while not further choking an economy under serious strain.

This blog was created as part of my training for Master 2 Finance concentration in France.